The Other "R-Word" in Resilience: Retreat

SNAPSHOT: As we get serious about sea level rise adaptation and resilience, it quickly becomes apparent that there are areas of our coast that we cannot keep safe and productive. Virginia’s current projections for sea level rise are the highest on the Atlantic Coast and some parts of coastal Virginia face insurmountable challenges. These images show the inundation risk by 2080 to many coastal communities - red being those roads and structures directly impacted by flooding. Our adaptation needs in Virginia total many tens of billions of dollars, money we do not have, nor will we have it in time for many areas along our shoreline. This means that we face some tough decisions in these low-lying areas, about whether it makes sense to stay and fight the water or begin to retreat now, before conditions worsen. Wetlands Watch has started a program to focus on the reality of retreat along the coast.

BACKSTORY: Wetlands Watch has been working on sea level rise and increased flooding for over 12 years, determined to keep Virginia’s shoreline ecosystems and communities safe. During that time we’ve seen the projections for future impacts climb higher and higher.

In our early work, we used the Virginia Climate Commission’s 2008 projections of 2.5 feet of sea level rise by century’s end. Now we are looking at 4.5 feet by 2100. This is the highest rate of relative sea level rise on the East Coast. When we add in the increased rainfall flooding we are experiencing, the situation gets even more complicated.

Given the pace of the increases in flooding, and backlogs on funding for flood control and resilience projects, we will not be able to “save” every community. As Virginia’s Governor Northam said on December 7 when the Virginia Coastal Master Plan was released:

“While there are things we can do to protect our communities, the plan also shows us that in some places, we’re going to have to focus on moving people and structures out of harm’s way. It’s our duty as public servants to have honest, frank conversations with residents about these facts.”

Wetlands Watch has started those conversations and they are not easy. We are fighting development proposals and regulatory permits in areas that will go underwater. We are working with local land use officials to help them understand the risk they face in coming years and decades.

We are pressing for the use of the “R” word in policies and programs at the local, state, and federal levels. But progress is slow.

In our earlier work, we struggled for years to get people to accept sea level rise and to understand that increased rainfall intensity was real and here to stay. We are starting now to bring coastal communities together to discuss the next phase, retreat. We don’t have much time to turn this around.